By: David Schoeller-Diaz

Over 10,000 phone messages reportedly arrived at the Colombian Presidential Palace within 24 hours of the long awaited Constitutional Court ruling, which barred President Uribe from seeking a second reelection by a 7-2 vote. Coming from the Press Chief we can accept the figure as embellished, but nonetheless points to the strong emotions involved.

As the ‘Uribe Era’ comes to a close, less than 150 days of uncertainty remain before the new path of the country is forged. One thing, however, is clear. Colombian democracy is stronger today, illuminating institutional autonomy in a region long dominated by populist “caudillos” and military dictators. A third presidential term would have most certainly led to further concentration of power in the executive branch, and more precisely, in the hands of a single dominant figure, threatening the long-term institutional capacity to tackle the evolving threats facing the nation.

For long, Colombia has had a paradoxical democracy, simultaneously one of the most resilient in Latin America with a rare history of virtually uninterrupted elections, and fraught with chronic political violence for over 50 years. While a democratic tradition solidified early on, the state never acquired the heavy-handed measures of most countries in the region to enforce their authority and provide necessary social services throughout the territory. In other words, while Colombia has been truly privileged to circumvent the grueling struggle towards democracy, effective nation building never reached far beyond the major cities allowing illicit activity to flourish. The tough terrain and decentralized character of Colombia make it extremely difficult for a non-state army to existentially threaten the government, and for the government to patrol its frontier lands against insurgents, paramilitaries, or drug trafficking.

Álvaro Uribe, the Harvard and Oxford-educated Governor of Antioquia, was elected at a time when most Colombians were saying “No Más”, following two highly ineffective Presidents.
The 1990’s saw economic stagnation and a dramatic rise in homicides, kidnappings, and drug production. In the face of this crisis, many international analysts questioned the viability of the state, increasingly flirting with that grisly label of “failed state”.

During the last 8 years, President Uribe has succeeded in becoming the most popular head of state in Colombia’s recent history, consistently holding one of the highest approval ratings anywhere in the hemisphere. The debate on his legacy will continue, particularly during the intense electoral battle likely to come. Two prominent politicians, Andrés Felipe Arias (former Minister of Agriculture) and Juan Manuel Santos (former Minister of Defense and graduate of The Fletcher School), are vying for President Uribe’s mantle, but a rich electoral landscape covers the political spectrum. Nevertheless, despite substantive policy disagreements, most Colombians agree that it is in great part due to President Uribe’s “Democratic Security” that the country has seen drastic crime reduction and a reinvigorated economy, even withstanding the global recession relatively well. Thousands of paramilitaries have demobilized, and for the first time in decades, guerrilla groups that have terrorized communities and intertwined with the drug industry, appear severely weakened.

There are many capable politicians that can address current challenges. So far, most emerging candidates have vowed to somehow continue a forceful military strategy, while presenting innovative policies towards the evolving security outlook and the pressing socioeconomic needs. The next administration must pay special attention to five crucial matters.

1. Keep the resolution of the armed conflict and crime reduction a top priority. This demands a sustained military pressure on militants, prioritizing civilian protection and human rights, while holding an open door for constructive negotiations. 
2. Intensity efforts to repair diplomatic, security and commercial relations with neighboring countries, particularly Venezuela, by stressing vital mutual interests.
3. Develop a more comprehensive and coherent response to the roughly 3 million internally displaced, most struggling to rebuild their lives in sprawling shantytowns.
4. Stimulate continued commercial activity and protect investor confidence, in order reduce unemployment and bolster the economy.
5. Reinvigorate the rural sector, long neglected in this largely urban country, by improving security and nurturing agricultural employment. Neglect has exacerbated the armed conflict by leaving a pool of idle men, and ample terrain for militancy and drug production. Moreover, the greater government command of territory previously held by militants opens an unprecedented opportunity for responsible land reform to redress the nation’s exceptionally unequal land distribution. Land reform, accompanied by more effective state presence and investment in infrastructure, is a vital step to develop alternative crops and reverse poverty-driven displacement. 

Thanks to Colombia’s resilient democracy, I am confident that voters will openly and critically wrestle with these and other issues, so that 150 days from today, the country’s future can look a bit brighter.


David Schoeller-Diaz is a MA candidate of Law and Diplomacy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University, with a concentration on Human Security and Conflict Resolution. He has lived in Latin America, West Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe for over 15 years