Thanks to everyone who joined us for our liveblogging. We enjoyed ourselves, and we hope you enjoyed it too!
10:24 PM - Jeff's SNAP ANALYSIS - This was a surprising speech from President Obama. In it, he clearly sought to define his perspective on domestic economic issues and challenges, while attacking and redifining those who oppose his vision of change. He briefly touched upon international issues such as free trade, terrorism, and nuclear proliferation -- but the main shock tonight was the fiesty approach to his views, and the views of his challengers and detractors. While there were occasional moments of flippancy, they were followed by serious moments of gravitas. I think that there will be many things said in the coming moments, and in the days to come, on the issues and perspectives presented here.
10:21 PM - Dave - Well that's all she wrote. My snap analysis - great speech, but my question is about the follow-through. Can he stay on top of Congress and make them productive, rather than petty? Congress is a wild beast to tame, and it's a tall order even for Obama. All in all, a well-delivered speech and a great job of attempting to reclaim the narrative.
10:20 PM - Jeremy - Good Political slogan "We are America" (following my "everyone is just as american as everyone else).
10:18 PM - Dave - Ahhhh, the camera shot of my Congressman, and my hero - Patrick Kennedy. And as Jeremy said, he looks relatively sober!
10:17 PM - Jeff - ... and here it is. An attempt to reclaim the mantle of change. Can he do it?
10:16 PM - Dave - Don't hold your breath, Jeremy.
10:15 PM - Jeremy - I would like Obama to say, "there is no such thing as the real america, the people on wall street are just as the same as the people on main street in Iowa because we are all americans deserving of the same respect and rights afforded to all citizens who contribute to making this the greatest country on earth."
10:14 PM - Jeremy - Head of the Marine Corps is very against repealing don't ask don't tell. Fact: more women are thrown out of the armed forces for being gay than men (by far).
10:13 PM - Jeff - Prediction...CONFIRMED
10:13 PM - Dave - There's the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell. Can he follow through this year?
10:12 PM - Dave - I thought the way he glazed over Afghanistan without any significant discussion was fairly glaring.
10:11 PM - Jeff - I am worried that any sanctions will not dissuade the Islamic Republic from their current path -- this was unnecessary, and only throws water on the grease fire of Khamenei's comments on Israel today.
10:10 PM - Jeremy - Reducing nuclear stockpiles saves us money, we also need to upgrade our warheads (Dirty secret: we arent sure all our missiles still fire)
10:09 PM - Jeremy - It should be noted that while Bush was always saying support the troops he consistenly cut benefits for veterans (fact courtesy of my healthcare lobbyist girlfriend).
10:07 PM - Jeremy - Reality Check: Not all troops are combat troops. Obama does not mean all US troops will be out of Iraq by the end of the year.
10:07 PM - Dave - I know I'm not the only one who thinks Iraq is going to disintigrate over the next year. More to come on that in the next few weeks.
10:06 PM - Jeff - Obama and the Predator/Reaper strikes. I am waiting for the Yemen issue here -- and I think we can expect a call on Don't Ask, Don't Tell
10:06 PM - Jeremy - Reality Check: Troops will not be coming home in any big way in 2011
10:05 PM - Dave - First foreign policy mention. Not surprising that he focused on domestic issues, but over an hour?
10:04 PM - Jeff - Napolitano is truly rocking Janet Reno chic!
10:03 PM - Dave - He's right to call out the GOP on insisting on 60 votes to get anything done, but are they going to change?
10:03 PM - Jeff - The Party of No and Leadership - this is an edgier Obama
10:02 PM - Jeff - "We still have the largest majority in decades, and people still expect us to solve problems" -- this is a throwing of the gauntlet
10:02 PM - Dave - He's hitting all the right notes now, but he needs to stay on this after the speech to make any change.
10:01 PM - Jeremy - Great line "what frustrates Americans is that every day in Washington is election day."
10:00 PM - Jeremy - Justice Kennedy was just shaking his head when obama criticised the supreme courts decision on campaign fincance. Once again the Supreme court should not be there!!
9:59 PM - Dave - This appeal to common sense sounds tired to me. He said it in the campaign, but was unable to change anything. How is he going to make this year different? I think he has to stay on this bully pulpit. He's off to a great start. I like the earmark website, even just for the symbolic value.
9:57 PM - Jeff - "Lets try common sense -- a novel concept." I think Rush Limbaugh just had another heart scare
9:57 PM - Jeremy - Republicans say tax cuts for the wealthy help our economy. What country have they been living in for the past decade. Studies show that the rich tend to save the money they get from tax cuts and the middle class tends to spend their tax cuts on trampoleens etc (yes i know i cant spell)
9:56 PM - Jeff - Obama has shocked DC with this speech tonight. He is not pulling his punches and he is not shying away from defining his opponants on his terms. This is Teddy Roosevelt's Bully Pulpit!
9:55 PM - Dave - Whoa that's some bright yellow!
9:54 PM - Jeremy - Pay as you doesn't matter because it doesn't include supplemental defense spending, which as i said earlier is our second biggest expense.
9:53 PM - Dave - I remain highly skeptical of this "spending freeze." It just reeks of cheap politics.
9:53 PM - Jeff - This is weird -- he just proposed alot of new spending. Gone are the days of the Obama/McCain debate where he called for a "scalpel, not a hatchet". I want to see where he is going on this line.
9:52 PM - Jeremy - Good admission "I have added another trillion dollars to the national debt to help stave off economic collapse." In order to pay off that debt Obama is going to freeze spending for three years. (which was McCains plan during the campaign) However it should be noted that the defense budget is not covered by the freeze which after social security is our biggest expense
9:51 PM - Jeff - It's like Kubrick filming the State of the Union.
9:51 PM - Dave - That overhead camera angle made me dizzy.
9:51 PM - Jeff - Obama is definitely feisty tonight -- a bit less gravitas than a normal State of the Union-- it feels almost like the campaign has started tonight. An interesting move.
9:51 PM - Dave - Once again, a friendly reminder that this isn't my fault.
9:50 PM - Jeremy - Just the facts! Another great line "all this spending occurred before I walked through the door."
9:49 PM - Dave - Nice to see him calling out the GOP on being the Party of No, but I think it might be too late to salvage health care.
9:49 PM - Jeremy - Obama is finally taking the opportunity to reshape the debate on Health Care. It's about time -- but it may be too late
9:48 PM - Jeff - this is the obama I like. Just the facts ma'am, just the facts. Healthcare reform will lower the national debt. Hells yea it will!!
9:47 PM - Jeff - Couple that with the Economists' reporting of the "Obama Effect" of 11 trillion, we are in good shape!
9:46 PM - Jeremy - Some Fun History: During one of Bill Clinton's state of the union speeches the teleprompter failed at the begining of the speech and he spoke for over an hour off of memory.
9:45 PM - Dave - I'm pretty sure Obama is the funniest President we've had since William Henry Harrison, who was a stand-up comic in his spare time.
9:45 PM - Jeremy - Did Scott Brown get invited to the State of the Union? I feel like he didn't because now would be the time for the camera to pan to him
9:45 PM - Jeff - Obama just made a classic pivot from humor to the passion of Health Care
9:44 PM - Jeremy - I will be disappointed if Obama doesn't bring up the national debt in this speech because its a huge national security concern and the American public needs to know that
9:42 PM - Dave - I certainly support student loan reform!
9:40 PM - Jeff - That is officially a double down on the Doha Trade Agreement and an exhortation for the Senate to move on the Colombia Free Trade Agreement!
9:39 PM - Jeff - Can we really turn the rust belt into the photovoltaic belt in this short a time span?
9:37 PM - Jeff - Oh! Smackdown on Climate Change! paraphrase -- even if you are an idiot, you like money don't you?
9:37 PM - Jeremy - I have so little faith in the intelligence of some congressman that i am honestly shocked that they all know when to stand up and sit down in unison
9:36 PM - Dave - Climate Smackdown!
9:36 PM - Jeremy - I am totally for more nuclear power. Its much safer these days. Not so much about off shore drilling but if thats what the republicans need to get over the hippy solar panels then so be it
9:35 PM - Jeff - This new push on future jobs and a future generation of light water reactors is reminiscent of the TVA of the New Deal.
9:35 PM - Laura and Catie - Where is Pelosi looking???
9:34 PM - Jeremy - To Second Obama, Americans need to realize that they are not losing their jobs because the banks screwed up, the economic collapse just brought to light the fact that we are no longer a manufacturing country. Those jobs have gone overseas and arent coming back. Unfortunately too many americans dont have the education and training to do skilled jobs. The solution government sponsored retraining programs and better education in math and science for all americans and being able to write better wouldnt hurt but lets not get ahead of ourselves
9:34 PM - Dave - Someone at CNN has a great sense of humor for showing Chris Dodd when Obama talked about "punishing the banks."
9:33 PM - Dave - Once again, I'm glad he's trying to elevate the issues above partisan politics. However, I would like to see some ideas about how to make it so.
9:32 PM - Jeremy - Great Line! No second place for America!
9:32 PM - Jeff - That was just an amazing line!
9:31 PM - Jeff - What happened to the Spending Freeze?
9:29 PM - Jeremy - I would love to have the government pay for me to get a solar panel for my house.
9:29 PM - Dave - He's very focused on domestic policy. Not a single mention of Afghanistan or Iraq so far. Not that I'm surprised.
9:28 PM - Jeremy - Prediction Confirmed!
9:27 PM - Jeremy - If more money goes to small banks for small business loans doesnt that mean the big banks will give even less money out for small businesses than before? Not sure thats a great idea...
9:25 PM - Jeff - Boener seems to be a big fan of a new jobs bill ... and interesting gambit. Keynsian economics meets the high speed train!
9:25 PM - Jeremy - I worry that this has been too positive thus far, I feel like the 25 million unemployed are saying "who gives a shit about the guy in Phoenix!"
9:24 PM - Dave - Obama has to walk a very fine line here talking about the financial recovery. Unemployed people, of whom there are many, don’t want to hear that the bank recovery worked. Like Jeremy said, he needs to continue addressing us as adults, not children.
9:23 PM - Jeremy - Keep saying not a single dime, good bumper sticker phrase.
9:22 PM - Jeff - This is a good vein for Obama to run with - who doesn't love a tax cutter?
9:21 PM - Jeremy - Common misconceptions spread by the ridiculous right: 1. No terrorist attacks happened in the Bush administration (...if you don't count 9/11). 2. Obama bailed out the banks and AIG...(Actually he just continued the programs that Bush started)...ok bailing out the auto industry was probably a bad move on Obama's part
9:18 PM - Jeff - Too big to care? Populist root canal?
9:18 PM - Jeremy - Obama does a lot better when he speaks straight to the American people with the tone that says "i know you are smart so I am not going to dumb this down or offer you half truths." Obama needs to sympathize with those who are unemployed and blame the banks but he should not fixate on trying to act equally as mad as they are. George W. Bush was the President that you could have a beer with, Obama is the President you hope to learn from every time he speaks. Speech writers please cut down on sad speech and focus on what we the democratic party should from this day be known for: straight talks and facts. Bush and the Republicans wanted to scare you into submission, Obama wishes to educate and with your help lead us to salvation. Economic recovery will not be a quick victory, it will be one of patient minute success.
9:14 PM - Jeff - And Blanktown, Swingstate.
9:13 PM - Dave - Is this the part where he reminds us that this is all Bush's fault?
9:12 PM - Jeff - There's a template for the first few minutes of the speech. It's like a Mad-Lib.
9:08 PM - Jeff - Justice Kennedy was giving Obama the stink-eye!
9:06 PM - Dave - First correct prediction of the night goes to Jeremy, for predicting the red tie.
9:04 PM - Jeremy - Republicans led the charge to war in both Afghanistan and Iraq and yet they seem entirely opposed to any mention of tax increases. It appears that the republican party is actually intent on the downfall of the Republic. Apparently Republicans missed the civics class when the rest of the students learned about how taxes pay for things like wars and and supplemental defense spending. (Another blog idea: why don't we teach civics anymore?) News flash people we need to pay China back all that money we borrowed at some point and the longer we wait the more interest we have to pay. I do not have such a low opinion of the Republican party to think that they think they can just will away our national debt. However, I do believe that they are selfish enough to put off tax increases until they either die or retire. The one thing I want to hear Obama say tonight is "i want to be honest with the American people, we need to raise taxes, but only on those who can afford to pay." Lets get it on
8:58 PM - Dave - My pregame prediction/recommendation – Obama needs to regain his position as the adult in the room. During the campaign, Obama got tremendous credit for keeping his calm and being rational, rather than engaging in low politics. He needs tonight to regain that poise and lead, rather than play the political games.
8:57 PM - Jeremy - Purple. I like it.
8:47 PM - Dave - The beer is cold, the pizza is warm, and lots of unimportant people are milling about on the chamber floor. It must be almost time for the State of the Union! I'm here with Jeff and Jeremy, and we'll be bringing you our (hopefully) insightful analysis during the night. The comments section is open, so send us your thoughts too!
F&*K it, we'll do it LIVE!
Dear loyal followers (and new readers who have stumbled in here from HuffPo)...
Join us TONIGHT at 9 PM EST as D&D goes boldly where many others have gone -- with our own twist!
We will be Live Blogging President Obama's 2010 State of the Union Address, sharing our imput, analysis, and commentary as the address unfolds! Our comment sections will be wide open, and we can't wait to hear your thoughts on our thoughts on President Obama's thoughts.
To those of you scanning this post, here are the highlights:
Tonight. 9 PM. State of the Union. Live Blogging.
So... Turn on the TV, grab a cold one, and long on to D&D!
see you all then!
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FINAL UPDATE at 1:18 AM EST -- 3:32 PM Korean Time
A bit of clarification and scope -- it appears that North Korea fired approximately 30 heavy artillery shells into the region around the NLL. They have also banned all maritime activity on their western coast. South Korea responded by firing 100 "warning shots" into the region.
UPDATE at 11:32 PM EST -- 1:32 PM Korean Time
As of now, it appears that there is all quiet in the NLL (northern limit line) in the Western Sea Zone. However, today's salvos of heavy artillery into the region are the most recent escalation involving the contested maritime border between North and South Korea. Here is the relevant timeline:
March 29, 2009 -- North Korea Declares 2 "No Sail/No Fly" Zones in the long-contested Western sea border between North and South Korea
November 10, 2009 -- A South Korean Patrol Ship opened fire on a North Korean naval vessel that had crossed the NLL (northern limit line), exchanging fire with that vessel, killing one North Korean sailor, wounding 3.
November 16, 2009 -- South Korea evacuates naval ships from the Western sea after detecting signs that North Korea had activated radar for surface to ship missiles deployed on the Ongjin Peninsula, Hwanghai Province, and had painted South Korean ships.
December 22, 2009 -- North Korea declared a "peacetime firing zone" along both sides of the NLL, to counter "the reckless military provocative manoeuvres by the warmongers in the South Korean military." warning of the deployment of both land based artillery and land to sea missiles.
January 25, 2010 -- North Korea unilaterally announced a shipping ban on both sides of the NLL, specifically in the region of east of the island of Baeknyeong and and west of the island of Daechyong, both locations of South Korean Naval and Marine Bases.
TODAY -- North Korea opened fire with land based artillery into the contested maritime border region, an action that was met with retaliatory "warning shots" fired by South Korean forces.
For D&D Snap Analysis of this new escalation of the Korean Maritime Crisis, read below!
UPDATE at 10:12 PM EST -- 12:12 PM Korean Time
As more news is rolling in, it appears that North Korea has fired multiple land based artillery rounds into the Western sea, a committal act that was met with South Korean retaliatory "warning shots" fired into the same maritime region. First reports from anonymous sources in the South Korean Defense Ministry are that there was no damage or casualties.
D&D SNAP ANALYSIS:
This event, coupled with the recent naval battle in the same region on the North/South Korean maritime border seems to suggest that North Korea has become increasingly sensitive about South Korean forces in the region, as both exchanges of fire have been instigated by North Korean forces reacting to South Korea's presence near the zone. On March 29, Pyongyang announced 2 "No Sail" zones in the Western sea, part of which included South Korean territorial waters -- suggesting that they may be preparing for possible missile tests in the area. Time will tell.
Check back soon for further news and analysis.
Previous Post Follows:
The AP and Yonhap News is reporting an exchange of heavy artillery fire between North and South Korean Forces along their disputed western sea border, the same region that witnessed the recent bloody gun battle between North and South Korean naval vessels.
The AP story can be found HERE
Check back soon for updates and analysis
1. Can someone please explain to me why Rod Blagojevich is not in jail? I mean, come on DOJ. The FBI has this guy on tape talking about wanting to sell President Obama's vacant senate seat, yes the words "for sale" were never mentioned in the phone calls but just like pornography, I know corruption when I see it and someone saying they arent going to give "something for nothing" seems pretty clear to me. Even without that little incident Blagojevich is also facing charges of trying to leverage state approval for the sale of the Chicago Cubs on the condition that the editorial staff of the Chicago Tribune stop calling for his resignation (which they were pursuing on a account of about a dozen other federal crimes this mope is accused of...
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When remarking on the DoD's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), the esteemed think tanker Anthony Cordesman once remarked that it was "the most pointless and destructive planning effort imaginable...[and that] if God really hates you, you may end up working on [it]. So what is this document that all of DC and the security community at large is eagerly awaiting the release of and is it of any real significance?
First some quick background. The QDR is a document that was first conceived of in 1993, then referred to as the "Bottom-up Review" and was an attempt by the DoD to address the international security environment in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union. In 1996 Congress legislated that the Department of Defense conduct a "Quadrennial Defense Review" to address the U.S. military's strategic objectives and identify future security threats. To put it simply, the QDR is meant to be a time when the Defense leadership (Office of the Secretary of Defense) takes a step back from the day to day operations and attempts to think long term and answer the BIG questions. Who do we see as our enemies today and in ten years? Are we investing in the right technologies to fight these enemies? Do we possess the appropriate strategies and doctrine to face the current threats? Is the enemy we are fighting today going to be the same enemy we will be fighting in ten years?
Word on the street is that the Obama administration will be coming out with its QDR sometime in the next month. The QDR will be the most important document that the DoD puts out this year and in my opinion will likely be the most important document that the Obama administration generates as a whole, short of the budget, for some time to come. It may seem at first that I am disagreeing with the comments made earlier by Anthony Cordesman, however, I assure you that while the author does think quite highly of himself, he is not that foolish. I completely agree with Dr. Cordesman (who by the way is a Fletcher Grad) that every QDR done to date has been a collasal waste of time and resources. If you have had the unfortunate pleasure of reading all three QDR's you will notice that good chunks of them were simply copy and pasted from the previous QDR. You will also notice that they are devoid of any real strategy. The QDR was thought of as a strategy document that would supply direction to the entire armed forces, but instead it has mostly devolved into a petty fight between the services over who gets the bigger share of the budget.
Ironically, the years before the QDR existed were the years that the US military actually had a series of set strategies that for the most part worked. For the majority of the Cold War the U.S. military had a strategy of containing the spread of communism and despite dragging us into Vietnam, the strategy did manage to prevent the expansion of the Soviet Union. In the late 70's to early 80's, the U.S. military also adopted an "off-set strategy" whereby the DoD recognized that it could not produce nearly as many troops and weapons as the Soviets but would instead off-set their superiority in numbers with superior quality troops and high-tech weaponry (JDAM's, GPS, Star Wars etc). Finally, in the 90's the U.S. adopted the strategy of planning to be able to fight two conventional wars at the same time. Less of a detailed plan but a strategy none the less. However, despite jumping in head first into two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq the DoD has yet to come up with a defined strategy in over 9 years of war.
That was the depressing part. I now have high hopes that the next QDR will offer up a concrete strategy for the DoD that moves it beyond the "war on terror". A basic question that the QDR will have to answer is who is the enemy? Is it local insurgencies, global jihadis, state sponsors of terrorism or all of the above? On an even more basic level I strongly believe that this QDR needs to firmly define "terrorism," specifically stating whether or not it is a criminal act or an act of war. Finally, the QDR will need to clearly state whether or not counterinsurgency is going to be the name of the game for the foreseeable future and if it is, how will be be changing the makeup of our forces to better reflect the enemy we face. This will undoubtedly mean making some very unpopular and very large cuts in the defense budget specifically things like next generation fighter planes, mid air refueling tankers and new super aircraft carriers (any of these ringing a bell!!)
Anyway, I hope you have enjoyed reading about the QDR, its not the most fun document in the world but lets just hope the next one is actually worth reading. And if you happen to be walking down the halls at the Pentagon and you see someone with an ID card that reads "Kathleen Hicks" go ahead and give her a hug because despite being a great lady she is the one that God has chosen to to run this years QDR....
And that's my fifty cents (inflation)
Last week's Supreme Court decision on corporate direct spending on US elections may have an incredibly scary, unintended consequence. While there is an excellent breakdown of the issue here on Talking Points Memo, I wanted to talk about this issue on D&D as well, if only to start the debate!
Question: Are you an international corporation, possibly controlled by your national government?
Quetion: Are you incorporated in the United States?
Question: How would you like to try and influence the outcome of a US election?
If you answered these three questions "yes", or, in the case of Venezuelan Government controlled, US incorporated, Citgo: "claro que si! Viva Chavez!", boy are you in luck! In the eyes of the law, these corporations can spend, spend, spend in any and every election they see fit. Do your political ads suddenly smell less 'sulfery'? Thanks Hugo!
Yikes.
While the impacts of this Supreme Court decision have yet to be witnessed, one can only imagine that the impact of this 5-4 ruling may fundamentally change how elections play out. It is concerning food for thought, and I suspect to be reading more about this very soon. In the meantime, does anyone know how to say "Swift Boaters for Truth" in Spanish, Arabic, and Chinese?
The chattering classes love to play up the existential threat Al Qaeda poses to the United States. Nevermind that their greatest success, 9/11, managed to kill less than 3,000 Americans and that they have since been unable to strike a major blow against the homeland. Terrorism has become the front-line foreign policy issue, despite the fact that AQ and their ideological brethren are just that - terrorists, not destroyers of nations.
I don't mean to downplay the significance of 9/11. It was a horrific event, and every one of the 2,973 innocent deaths was a tragedy. However, it was never going to cause the collapse of the United States. Tragic, yes; existentially threatening, no.
And now, rapidly approaching the ten-year anniversary of 9/11, the hollowness of AQ is becoming evident. The organization we all feared has been exposed as nothing more than a few misguided ideologues and incompetent bumblers. AQ is not a nightmare combination of the Nazis, SPECTRE, and Stalinist hardliners; in fact it is far closer to the Three Stooges in operational ability. The exploits of the "shoe bomber" Richard Reid and the "Undie-bomber" Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab make 9/11 appear to be a once-in-a-lifetime success for AQ, driven by good fortune and luck rather than evil genius.
As if to confirm these diminished capabilities, an audiotape purportedly from Osama bin Laden recently surfaced to praise the actions of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. As is his style, bin Laden does not formally claim credit for the act, but heralds it as a reaffirmation of the message of 9/11 and promises more attacks. At first glance this seems a chilling reminder of AQ, lurking in every shadow and airplane bathroom. But a closer read reveals the emptiness of the message.
First of all, some analysts question the authenticity of the tape - is that really bin Laden, or a shallow impostor? More importantly to my mind is the underlying question of why. Why would bin Laden, the scrounge of the West and would-be slayer of imperialists, take to the airwaves in praise of someone who manged only to light his privates on fire before being subdued by unarmed civilians?
Perhaps the tape isn't from bin Laden because he is long dead or stuck incommunicado in a remote cave. Or, maybe AQ does not have the ability to mount a successful operation inside the U.S. and has resorted to grabbing at any publicity it can in an attempt to remain relevant. Either way, it should be clear that our deadly adversary needs to be redefined. It is not an existential threat, it is a criminal nuisance.
There will always be terrorists and terror attacks. If AQ is no longer a significant player there will be other groups to take it's place. But terror is not a phenomenon confined to Islamic fundamentalists or bin Laden's disciples; who can forget Timothy McVeigh or Aum Shinrikyo? We need to portray and understand terrorism for what it truly is - a source of tragic deaths, but not the potential downfall of the nation.
I'm almost afraid to wade into this issue, as I'm sure I will anger many (I invite your comments!), but this issue is too important NOT to post on. Below is my analysis of the Obama Administration's decision to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in a civilian courtroom in lower Manhattan.
Is Khalid Sheikh Mohammed a criminal? Yes -- and, in a perfect world, he should get his day in court. He should be tried by an impartial jury lead by an impartial judge, and legally collected evidence should be presented for and against his guilt. The findings of the court should reflect the strength of our constitution -- finding someone guilty of a crime despite all of the protections afforded the accused.
How beautifully normative -- huh?
But we have problems here. Alot of them.
The Obama Administration has put on their normative caps (something I usually applaud) for exactly the wrong issue, at exactly the wrong time. Unfortunately, they have also pinned alot of their credibility and political capital to this trial.
Beyond moving the trial to the remotest corner of the globe, into a village without Internet, TV, radio, telegraph, semaphore, or word of mouth -- you are not going to find an impartial jury, much less an impartial judge. By holding the trial in Lower Manhattan a few blocks from ground zero, you raise the absurdity of this fact. Anyone who can swear in court that they are able to render an impartial verdict for KSM (especially in NY) is a liar. Can you bar the jurors from visiting something as innocuous as wikipedia?
Then there is the "evidence" issue. Will the transcripts of KSM's Gitmo interrogations be allowed? How do you transliterate the sound of water flowing over someone's gagged mouth? I would think that any lawyer would argue that there are some serious 4th and 5th amendment issues at play there. Should a judge rule that they are admissible, can a proper chain of custody be established over the content of the transcripts without violating alot of people's TS/SCI clearances?
Was KSM mirandized?
What evidence can be presented in open court? Will the government be granting temporary clearances to the jurors?
But more importantly, this trial will run the risk of perhaps the greatest opportunity for jury nullification even witnessed. Will this be a trial of a Terrorist, or a trial on Waterboarding? Will this be a trial of the 9/11 plotters, or an indictment of Gitmo?
Ultimately, I think this unlikely. KSM will be found guilty because he is guilty, but the issue is this: if the result of the trial is a foregone conclusion, is it a trial? The jury, upon entering the courtroom will not be questioning KSM's guilt or innocence, but rather how long they have to sit there before they can say "guilty" and go home.
Will the US government be issued a gag order on talking about terror, al Qaeda, KSM et al. during the trial to avoid charges of jury tampering?
This will be a show trial. Which is the polar opposite of what the Obama Administration wants, and it is a tragedy. We cannot find him innocent -- but we cannot give him a fair day in court either. What kind of defense will KSM present for his actions? Even scarier, what kind of defense will he be ALLOWED to present?
Ultimately, I don't know how else we can approach this mess. It seems that if we are to try terrorists like KSM in civilian court, they must be treated as criminals from their arrest to their incarceration. Since the Bush Administration failed to do this, we cannot attempt to reverse engineer a trial for those detained before Obama took office. This is something it appears the current President is seeking to rectify with the UndieBomber, but will a free and fair trial for terror suspects even be possible in this media environment?
In the words of my colleague Jeremy, that's my 50 cents (inflation...)
If you've got a better idea, let me know.
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