By: Elise Crane

This week’s subway bombings in Moscow sharply displayed the consequences of ignoring the complexities of conflict. Last April, the Kremlin declared the war in Chechnya officially over and formally ended its counterterrorism campaign in the republic. However, death squads continue to flourish, Ramzan Kadyrov is hardly a competent—nor uncorrupt—leader and, as Monday’s tragedy so glaringly demonstrated, the conflict is far from over.

Moscow’s continued refusal to address the root causes of the Chechen separatist drive virtually ensures that the violence will continue. Although the Chechen movement took an admittedly virulent turn with the injection of radical Islam in the mid-1990s, at its heart, it is fueled by historical grievance and unaddressed trauma.

Due largely to Vladimir Putin’s stranglehold on Russian media, emblematized by Anna Politkovskaya’s untimely death (which was, ironically, blamed on Chechen terrorists, but the likely culprit presents a much more chilling picture), the Russo-Chechen conflict has been broadly portrayed as a classic “good versus evil” story. This is a dangerous simplification and neglects crucial historical facts that must be acknowledged if we hope to end the devastating conflict.

Twenty years ago, in the post-communist ideological vacuum, Chechens saw an opportunity to attain independence after a legacy of brutal Russian domination. What began as a separatist movement became, with the import of radical Islam as a mobilizing factor, part of the global “war on terror.” This allows Russia to present its atrocities in Chechnya as a legitimate response to the plague of Islamic fundamentalism.

For Chechens, Islam injects a degree of global community and financial support in their quest for independence. Radical Islam places the separatist cause under the aegis of virulent Arab jihadists alien to the Chechen historical experience.

Breaking News:

Two female suicide bombers, who's explosives were packed with metal rods and bars, detonated their devices 45 minutes apart in two Moscow subway stops this morning, killing at least 38, and injuring over 100.

If the FSB claims are to be believed, the bombers were tied to the northern Caucuses -- Chechnya. The bombers appear to be from the elite "Black Widow" squads of the Chechen Insurgency.

If the FSB is right, it appears that Doku Umarov has made real his threat that:

"Blood will no longer be limited to our (Caucasus) cities and towns. The war is coming to their cities."

the Chechen rebel leader made those remarks during in an interview on the unofficial Islamist website www.kavkazcenter.com

This attack, while horrific in and of itself, will have far reaching impacts on the Russian government. It is a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin's strong-man image -- something that Mr. Putin will respond to in a direct, violent, and unflinching way.

Mr. Putin's immediate response?

(more after the jump)