First of all, I must point out that the major news media (cough CNN) got it wrong when they said that this QDR marked a strong change in DoD policy because it stated a departure from the previous strategy of planning to be able to fight and win two wars at the same time. In fact this QDR comes out and clearly says that the US wishes to maintain "the ability to prevail against two capable nation-state aggressors." The QDR does say that instead of fighting two wars simultaneously that we expect instead to be engaged in multiple small conflicts around the world for the foreseeable future. It is my understanding, and please someone challenge me if I am wrong here, that the DoD is now defining Iraq and Afghanistan as small wars. I would agree with them in the sense that casualty rates are drastically lower than previous conventional wars like Korea and World War II but even though these wars are costing us less in blood they do come with huge price tags. I thus believe that our operations in Somalia and Yemen would be more aptly refferred to as small wars than Iraq and Afghanistan.

The issue that I believe is the most innovative in this year's QDR is the sections dealing with Northcomm's future role in homeland defense. Previously, the US military has been reticent to officially state the fact that there are plans in place for the US military to step in and perform civilian functions such as disaster response and policing in the event of a national disaster either act of god or man made. And for good reason. The US military is already committed enough oversees to be now taking on domestic functions, there is also a fine line between responding to real needs on the ground and violating the posse committatus act. The 2010 QDR calls for Northcom to downgrade the size of CBRNE Consequence Management Response Forces (CCMRFs) and then merge these teams with national guard forces to form Homeland Response Forces in each of the ten FEMA regions. This move should help bridge the typical 3-5 gap between when a disaster occurs and federal authorities arrive on the scene. This large change in military thinking can be attributed to former CSIS scholar and now Principle Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense Christine Wormuth who argued for just this change in a report two years ago entitled "Managing the Next Domestic Catastrophe." See people, think tanks can make a difference....

My major complaint with the QDR is that it says that we will continue to upgrade our COIN capabilities but it fails to say whether or not we are going to make COIN the military's top priority or if we will continue to plan for fighting major wars (presumably against China and Russia). From reading Secretary Gates' recent articles in Foreign Affairs it is my belief that he and the civilian defense leadership believe that all future wars will be Hybrid Wars. This term refers to small groups of trained unconventional fighters using sophisticated weaponry to enact large scale destruction against conventional forces. While this way of fighting obviously applies to Hezbollah's 2006 war with Israel it would also likely be the preferred strategy of a state like Iran should it ever find itself at war with the US. In addition to using their advanced missile technology to harm our conventional forces, Iran is also likely to utilize suicide vessels and anti ship missiles to stop the US Navy's ability to launch attacks from the Persian Gulf. Hybrid war is the future but I barely see it talked about in the QDR. I am no insider but I would have to guess that the military services objected to an overemphasis on hybrid war because it is just the type of conflict that a large conventional force is unprepared to fight.

Secretary Gates has already announced the cancellation or delay of the following programs:

The 2010 QDR refers to "countries" that are acquiring this technology and discusses efforts to counter it, but shies away from directly chastising China. This is a very smart move. If the Chinese read the QDR (which of course they are) and see that the US military is openly stating its intentions to hedge against the threat of a stronger Chinese military in East Asia this is only going to lead to increased Chinese efforts to deny the US military access to basing and waterways in East Asia.

To conclude, I am disappointed that the 2010 QDR did not say more in regards to our nation's long term defense strategy, but this is not to say that it was not written well. I was particularly sorry not to see a discussion of institutionalizing our COIN capability into perhaps a COIN office. Growing the Special Forces in the short term is not the same as being equipped to occupy an as yet unknown country ten years from now. No one of course wants to do this, but as history has shown us, it may be in the DoD's best interest to start better preparing for things that it doesn't want to do...

And thats my fifty cents (inflation...)

Disclaimer: I know I can't spell, but to bastardize a page from Samuel Clemens, I would have spelled things properly if only I'd had the time