tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3719806121127589545.post1560877586037630070..comments2023-10-09T05:02:03.356-04:00Comments on Demagogues and Dictators: How (And Why) Countries React to TerrorismDave Reidyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13930065654533089762noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3719806121127589545.post-91070937098342705432010-07-26T00:12:44.000-04:002010-07-26T00:12:44.000-04:00Thanks Beau. That's a lot of great informatio...Thanks Beau. That's a lot of great information to feed my curiosity.Catie Corbinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3719806121127589545.post-82378809330063928372010-07-24T11:56:24.000-04:002010-07-24T11:56:24.000-04:00Catie - good question. The issue of meta-perceptio...Catie - good question. The issue of meta-perception (what Al-Shabaab thinks the Ugandan government thinks about it) is tricky, and can go a few different ways:<br /><br />1) Al-Shabaab anticipated a weak Ugandan government would see the attacks as a direct result of the presence of peacekeepers in Somalia and would promptly remove their troops, thus leaving Somalia to Al-Shabaab.<br /><br />2) Al-Shabaab doesn't really care about the strength of the Ugandan government, but is interested in expanding its power in East Africa beyond its current stronghold in southern Somalia.<br /><br />3) Al-Shabaab anticipated a resolute response from Museveni, possibly an escalation, which they want because they want to provoke an over-reaction from Uganda (and possibly the U.S.), similar to Osama Bin Laden's purported motivation for the 9/11 attacks. <br /><br />4) Al-Shabaab is seeking a kind of jihadist "street-cred" from Al-Qaeda through this attack, which would show that they are a serious actor in the radical islamist terrorist world.<br /><br />Max Fisher at the Atlantic talks about the first two options, with dark implications for the US if either is Al-Shabaab's motivation. (http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/07/why-al-shabaab-would-attack-in-uganda/59551/ ). AEI's Critical Threats Project thinks that Al-Shabaab's motivation is a combination of 1 and 4, with Al-Shabaab wanting to dissuade further peacekeepers and also seeking an "al-Qaeda franchise designation." (http://www.criticalthreats.org/somalia/al-shabaabs-first-international-strike-analysis-july-11-uganda-bombings-july-14-2010-4559) <br /><br />Personally, I think that their motivation is a combination of 1, 2, and 4, but that Al-Shabaab miscalculated. #3 doesn't seem likely, as a major Afghanistan-style invasion and/or an oppressive occupation aren't a likely response by any actor. Al-Shabaab loses nothing by gaining Al-Qaeda's respect, but probably gains funding, recruits, and access to information (and weapons). I'm sure that they also fancy themselves as capable of dominating all of East Africa, even if that vision is a bit like the would-be terrorists who tried to cut the cables on the Brooklyn Bridge. But Al-Shabaab certainly wants to deter more peacekeepers by attacking Uganda, but here they miscalculated severely. The Ugandan response has been strong, and Guinea's announcement that it will send a battalion of peacekeepers, almost immediately after the attack, certainly demonstrates that the AU doesn't feel deterred. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-10744268)Beaunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3719806121127589545.post-56612286847096015462010-07-22T00:55:11.000-04:002010-07-22T00:55:11.000-04:00Beau, great post. I think it's a fascinating ...Beau, great post. I think it's a fascinating question that I hadn't ever asked myself. I always question the attack and not really the response. This has shifted my thinking a bit. Nice work!<br />My one question would be: Do you think in Al-Shabaab's planning of this attack, they anticipated what their response would be, given the factors you've raised? If so, why would Al-Shabaab want the response that Museveni has given them? Or do they think of themselves as legitimate enough to have warranted a different response? Ok, that was more than 1 question...Catie Corbinnoreply@blogger.com